Sunday, 09 May 2010

African Economic Outlook

I have been asked to comment on the IMF Regional Economic Outlook

From a long term point of view the most significant observation in the report is the countercyclical nature of fiscal policy in Africa during the crisis. This observation is important because it might  signal a long term "normalization" of fiscal institutions in many African countries. On the other hand it could be just an accident of history - it just happened that the crisis coincided with a period of relatively fiscal health, after years of fiscal adjustment and debt forgiveness. The fiscal dynamic going forward will reveal which one of the two scenarios is the most likely - for the moment let's enjoy a relatively quite economic climate.

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